USD Flow — Treasury Par Yield Curve

As of 2026-01-15 · Built 2026-01-16 05:05:19 UTC

Summary: Curve inverted (restrictive policy, slowdown concerns), with bear flattener — Move led by the short end (Fed expectations, front-end supply); Broad bond selloff — yields rose (hawkish tone, funding pressures)

Yield Curve

Market Overview

(Bear Flattener) Yields are pressing higher at the short end more than the long end — suggesting markets expect tighter Fed policy.

Short-term yields sit above long-term yields — often a sign of tight policy or growth worries.

The 2-year yield sits near the Fed’s target — policy looks on hold.

Fed Policy Context

Target range: 3.50 – 3.75% (mid 3.62%)
Effective fed funds (EFFR): 3.64%
2Y yield: 3.56% (-6.5 bp vs mid)
Read: near policy

Inflation Context

Restrictive · 10Y−Core PCE +1.26 pp

Core PCE YoY: 2.91% (as of 2025-08-01)
CPI YoY: 2.94% (as of 2025-08-01)
Core CPI YoY: 3.11% (as of 2025-08-01)
PCE YoY: 2.74% (as of 2025-08-01)
PPI YoY: 2.61% (as of 2025-08-01)
10Y – Core PCE: +1.26 pp

The 10-year yield is above Core PCE — real yields are positive, signaling restrictive policy.

CPI and Core PCE are broadly aligned — little divergence between consumer and Fed gauges.

Core CPI and Core PCE are close — no major signal from the core measures.

PPI is cooler than consumer inflation — pipeline pressures are easing.

Overall picture: restrictive stance with easing pipeline pressures.

Cross-Asset Read

Equities: Higher yields today are a headwind for equities (valuation pressure). Curve steepened — tilt to cyclicals/financials over long-duration growth. Macro backdrop is a headwind (tight policy with inversion).
Gold: High real yields — structural headwind.

Levels & Δ DoD

Tenor	Level	Δ DoD (bp)
1M	3.75%	↑ 3.0
1.5M	3.73%	↑ 2.0
2M	3.69%	↑ 3.0
3M	3.68%	↑ 1.0
4M	3.66%	↑ 1.0
6M	3.60%	↑ 2.0
1Y	3.54%	↑ 4.0
2Y	3.56%	↑ 5.0
3Y	3.62%	↑ 6.0
5Y	3.77%	↑ 5.0
7Y	3.96%	↑ 4.0
10Y	4.17%	↑ 2.0
20Y	4.74%	↑ 1.0
30Y	4.79%	+0.0

Key Spreads & Moves

Spread	Level	Δ DoD	Tag
2s10s	-61.0 bp	↑ 3.0 bp	Curve steepened (long-end pressure, inflation premium)
3m10y	-49.0 bp	↓ 1.0 bp	Front vs 10Y
5s30s	-102.0 bp	↑ 5.0 bp	Long-end slope
1y10y	-63.0 bp	↑ 2.0 bp	1Y vs 10Y

Legend
Short End (3M–2Y): Fed-sensitive → cards, autos, floaters
Mid (3Y–7Y): policy path 1–5y → intermediate benchmarks
Long End (10Y–30Y): inflation/growth & safety demand → mortgages, LT finance

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Source: U.S. Treasury (par yields) · FRB H.15 (EFFR / target range via FRED). Values are indicative closing bid-derived yields.