USD Flow — Treasury Par Yield Curve

As of 2025-12-08 · Built 2025-12-08 22:30:18 UTC

Summary: Curve inverted (restrictive policy, slowdown concerns), with bear steepener — Move led by the long end (inflation expectations, supply shifts); Broad bond selloff — yields rose (hawkish tone, funding pressures)

Yield Curve

Market Overview

(Bear Steepener) Long yields are pushing higher faster than short yields — pointing to inflation worries or heavier bond supply.

Short-term yields sit above long-term yields — often a sign of tight policy or growth worries.

The 2-year yield is below the Fed’s target — markets lean toward rate cuts.

Fed Policy Context

Target range: 3.75 – 4.00% (mid 3.88%)
Effective fed funds (EFFR): 3.89%
2Y yield: 3.57% (-30.5 bp vs mid)
Read: mildly dovish stance

Inflation Context

Restrictive · 10Y−Core PCE +1.26 pp

Core PCE YoY: 2.91% (as of 2025-08-01)
CPI YoY: 2.94% (as of 2025-08-01)
Core CPI YoY: 3.11% (as of 2025-08-01)
PCE YoY: 2.74% (as of 2025-08-01)
PPI YoY: 2.61% (as of 2025-08-01)
10Y – Core PCE: +1.26 pp

The 10-year yield is above Core PCE — real yields are positive, signaling restrictive policy.

CPI and Core PCE are broadly aligned — little divergence between consumer and Fed gauges.

Core CPI and Core PCE are close — no major signal from the core measures.

PPI is cooler than consumer inflation — pipeline pressures are easing.

Overall picture: restrictive stance with easing pipeline pressures.

Cross-Asset Read

Equities: Rates are broadly stable — little valuation impulse. Curve flattened — tilt to defensives/quality over cyclicals. Macro backdrop is a headwind (tight policy with inversion).
Gold: High real yields — structural headwind.

Levels & Δ DoD

Tenor	Level	Δ DoD (bp)
1M	3.82%	+0.0
1.5M	3.79%	↑ 1.0
2M	3.78%	↑ 1.0
3M	3.73%	↑ 2.0
4M	3.73%	+0.0
6M	3.69%	↑ 1.0
1Y	3.61%	+0.0
2Y	3.57%	↑ 1.0
3Y	3.59%	+0.0
5Y	3.75%	↑ 3.0
7Y	3.94%	↑ 4.0
10Y	4.17%	↑ 3.0
20Y	4.78%	↑ 3.0
30Y	4.81%	↑ 2.0

Key Spreads & Moves

Spread	Level	Δ DoD	Tag
2s10s	-60.0 bp	↓ 2.0 bp	Curve flattened (policy focus on front end)
3m10y	-44.0 bp	↓ 1.0 bp	Front vs 10Y
5s30s	-106.0 bp	↑ 1.0 bp	Long-end slope
1y10y	-56.0 bp	↓ 3.0 bp	1Y vs 10Y

Legend
Short End (3M–2Y): Fed-sensitive → cards, autos, floaters
Mid (3Y–7Y): policy path 1–5y → intermediate benchmarks
Long End (10Y–30Y): inflation/growth & safety demand → mortgages, LT finance

latest.json

Source: U.S. Treasury (par yields) · FRB H.15 (EFFR / target range via FRED). Values are indicative closing bid-derived yields.